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• It could be one of the smartest business decisions you ever make!

September Economic Outlook:
Let’s Talk Recession. 

 Quick takeaways

•  Recession science is not really science. Experts are constantly adding to the data they evaluate to make an official determination. So don’t let a current headline or pronouncement from an expert push you to risk your financial goals. 
• What you think and feel about a recession depends, in part, on your history with economic downturns. Any shift in an economic cycle looks different based on factors occurring at that moment in time.

 People try to predict all sorts of things: the existence of aliens, the length of celebrity marriages, and even the outcome in curling matches. And of course, they bet on the likelihood of a recession. In July, if you had predicted with certainty that an economic downturn was ahead, the odds would have been in your favor; all signs (and an increasing chorus of pundits) pointed in just that direction. Just a month later, however, those odds suddenly plummeted. That quick change is instructive for how to approach the economy over the next few months. It also offers strategies you can take to potentially insulate your finances—and boost your odds of safely weathering the economic wobbliness that’s sure to keep happening.

What is a recession, exactly? If you’re looking for an academic definition of a recession, it’s not hard to find: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as two consecutive quarters in a row of declining economic activity, or gross domestic product (GDP). Pretty straightforward, right? But how does that explain the outliers, such as the decline from March 2020 through May 2020—just two months, not two quarters? And how does it account for the NBER initially pinpointing the start date of the 2001 recession as September before eventually revising it to March?

Well, that’s because two quarters of decline is a benchmark, not an absolute. The NBER does a fair amount of revising as data sets become more robust. (Even that GDP number often gets an update.) Experts layer in other numbers, too, such as employment measured by a household survey and real personal consumption expenditures, to name just two. Key to the formal recession designation are depth, diffusion, and duration of economic numbers, not all of which move in tandem (or even drop at all). 

Your wallet: As you’re looking ahead, ask yourself what finance-related things you can control and what you can’t, suggests Winston. No matter how far in the future retirement is, you can create a retirement plan to get closer to your goals. If there is a recession, what can you do? A lot.

Everyone—you included—has a preconceived notion, based on personal history, of how a downturn plays out. Let’s say you read a headline that predicts a recession. What does the expert quoted in that article say the recession will look like? Their version is probably going to look different than another expert (and another headline).The point is, every recession is different, and how it affects you and your family depends on both your preparation and ability to pivot. If you haven’t been saving enough—lack of an emergency fund or a less-than-ideal retirement savings rate—your menu of possible pivots may be more limited. The key is realism. Not spending money probably isn’t realistic; perhaps cutting one takeout meal per week is. 

Your wallet: Think small steps in the next few months. Have you done a budget check-in lately? If not, you still have three-plus months in the year to adjust and catch up in spending categories that might have taken you by surprise. In addition, if you have some flex room in your budget, you can use it now to plan for additional tax-savings strategies such as retirement contributions to an IRA to complement what you’re deferring in a 401(k).

principal.com

‘Quiet Firing’
Is Not the Antidote to ‘Quiet Quitting’

Worker disengagement is not a new trend, but it is the latest viral challenge HR leaders are facing. The term “quiet quitters” has recently been coined to describe employees choosing not to go above and beyond at work. As a Gallup poll reveals, “quiet quitters make up at least 50% of the U.S. workforce, probably more.” Detachment at work has been increasing since 2018, based on Gallup data collected since 2000.

Some managers are responding by using “quiet firing” practices. According to a Resumebuilder.com survey, 1 in 3 managers are using passive-aggressive tactics to make work uncomfortable for the employee, in hopes that the “quiet quitter” will just leave. Quiet firing, like quiet quitting, is not new. A LinkedIn News poll found that 83% of respondents reported having faced it themselves or seen it used in the workplace. In a market where retention and staffing shortages reign, it is more critical than ever for leaders to acknowledge and avoid the behavior.

In new findings from the SHRM Research Institute, fewer than 36% of respondents to a survey from SHRM are reporting that quiet quitting is actively occurring within their organization. But of HR professionals who do report that their organization is experiencing quiet quitting, 3 in 5 (60%) say their organization’s culture leads to this behavior, with qualitative data revealing management issues (e.g., lack of engagement, communication issues, poor people management) and remote and hybrid work (e.g., poor supervisor support, lack of accountability) as common themes affecting workplace culture and encouraging quiet quitting. Instead, Lewis says, this is the time to have an open conversation about how the employee is feeling. Discussions should include asking about any support they may need and identifying steps to re-engage the individual.

Recognizing Quiet Firing

According to Annie Rosencrans, director of people and culture at HiBob, an HR tech platform, there is no single symptom to diagnose a culture of quiet firing. She says it is a combination of actions that include:

• Passing over an employee for promotions or raises despite high productivity and a strong work ethic without providing feedback as to why.
• Withholding feedback from workers (constructive or otherwise) on submitted projects. 
• Assigning projects that are consistently beneath an employee’s skill set or job description while colleagues have opportunities to grow and learn.
• Regularly canceling one-on-one and progress meetings. 
• Another seemingly subtle behavior may be consistently giving an employee an unpopular shift pattern or fewer  hours,” Lewis added. “Or it could be leaving a person off calendar invites for key discussions important to their work and knowledge.”

5 Strategies to Avoid Quiet Firing

Ignoring a quiet quitter is appealing because it feels easier than addressing the issue with the individual. These five tips can help you prepare for understanding the “why” behind the employee’s behavior and craft a realistic action plan that supports engagement.

Get comfortable being uncomfortable. “Quiet firing can sometimes come around when an employee is struggling in a certain area and their manager doesn’t know how to resolve this or is conflict-avoidant,” Lewis said. “Train managers on how to have difficult conversations and how to give constructive feedback.” Get to know your staff. People are more than their job. Families, interests, talents and hobbies sometimes compete with work priorities. 

“By creating a real connection with the people you manage, you become partners instead of adversaries when challenges at work arise,” Goldberg said. Conduct informal check-ins. Stay interviews are critical to engaging employees and avoiding quiet-firing practices. “If many employees feel they aren’t heard, HR can lead the charge in encouraging managers to set up formalized check-ins and to check employee timelines to see when they had last been promoted or given an earned raise,” Lewis said. Practice. Rehearse what you want to say and how to say it in advance of a challenging discussion. “Practice with a family member or colleague, get feedback, and practice it again until your tone and language match exactly the meaning you want to convey,” Goldberg suggested. Increase communication. In today’s workforce communication is crucial for team morale, engagement and happiness at work. 

The Cost of Quiet Firing Ignoring quiet firing wastes time and resources. Goldberg explained that the organization isn’t getting the support it needs and the employee isn’t getting any closer to reaching their professional goals. “Quiet firing robs employees of the meaningful work experience they seek. When a job lacks meaning, [then] loyalty, retention and overall satisfaction decrease at an organizational level,” Goldberg said. “If organizations want to end the Great Resignation and quiet quitting, they need to make smart investments in developing leaders to create a purposeful, open organizational culture where staff doesn’t feel like they have to resort to quiet quitting or quiet firing.”

www.shrm.org

Transform the Interview Process to Become an Employer of Choice  

Here are three little words with a huge impact: employer of choice. 

It not only elevates an employer’s standing, but also improves the ability to attract and retain the best people. This is a crucial advantage in today’s highly competitive hiring market.  Achieving employer-of-choice status isn’t based solely on how companies treat their workers. It’s also based on how they treat job seekers and applicants. For instance, no employer of choice forces candidates to endure discriminatory job ads, a lengthy and convoluted application process, invasive screenings and assessments or unstructured interviews. Employers of choice deliver candidate experiences that are worthy of their status. They treat everyone, from job seekers to new hires to longstanding employees, with dignity and respect. 

When it comes to the candidate experience in particular, this means a few basic things like not wasting people’s time, being responsive when communicating with them, setting and keeping milestone dates and times (especially interviews and status updates), and treating everyone equally. To ensure that your company’s candidate experience conveys employer-of-choice status, make sure it offers three powerful qualities: 

ADVERTISING 

Inclusivity is no longer a nice-to-have feature of a workplace culture. It’s an imperative for organizations of all types and sizes, and your company’s commitment to it should be evident in the candidate experience you provide. In past research, we highlighted a number of ways employers can raise the bar on the inclusivity of their candidate experiences, including showcasing diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) more prominently on their careers sites; implementing more strategies and smart technologies that can help reduce bias (like sourcing-and-selection artificial intelligence tech); and putting DEI data and metrics to greater use to increase recruiter and hiring manager accountability. 

Second, pay transparency shows candidates that you understand their needs and what’s important to them. Yes, people want to find meaning and fulfillment in their work, but pay still matters to them — a lot. Pay transparency is a highly visible sign that openness and fairness matter to your company. And since most organizations lack pay transparency, being open about pay practices will differentiate your company in a big way, as well as bolster your ability to attract and retain diverse talent. According to our data, for those who were given salary information, their perception of the fairness of their interview rose 30%. 

Finally, giving candidates feedback at each stage of their experience helps them understand why they’re moving forward — or why they aren’t. This kind of insight can aid them greatly in their future experiences as job candidates (with your company or another), and it provides a measure of closure when they’re no longer in the running. Our research shows that all of this boosts your company’s perceived fairness, relatability and humanity, especially since so many employers are failing to provide feedback. 

Many companies are experiencing critical talent shortages these days, and unfortunately, they will only get worse for companies that fail to be great talent magnets. The good news is, you don’t have to have official employer-of-choice status to deliver an employer-of-choice-level candidate experience. 

benefitnews.com